• Fish Wong

On Covid-19 (29 Apr)

This week I want to explore the relationship between population and the covid-19 situation


Let's first have a fast glance at the graph below on population and confirmed cases and deaths.

Apparently, there's a correlation between population and number of cases and deaths. Intuitively reasonable, more populated nation with more affected patients.


But countries like this US with larger country size doubtlessly will have a higher population thus more affected inhabitants, so what about population density?

As shown by the graph, above, if we consider the population density instead, it is not really correlated with the covid-19 number of cases or deaths. Thus, as frequently claimed by the Financial Times, the point for adjusting maps or graphs with 1M population does not really reveal the severe situation of the country. Perhaps, it will only make countries with huge area like China and the US looks a bit more optimistic.


What about other factors correlated to covid-19 cases/ deaths?

Here I explore how GDP and life expectancy as an independent variable correlated with the number of covid-19 cases & deaths


It looks like both of these factors are positively correlated with the number of covid-19 cases and deaths. However, my concern is, it is highly likely that countries that have a higher GDP and life expectancy are likely to have a better medical system and more resources on testing patient. As an outcome, they would have more recorded covid-19 cases and deaths.


MAPS

Since we are talking about the population this week, I have included maps that have the data adjusted with the population as well. Are there much differences?


World map on cumulative covid-19 cases.


World map on daily covid-19 cases.


Europe map on cumulative covid-19 cases.


Europe map on daily covid-19 cases.

While adjusting the data with population might make the covid-19 number looks better, does it really indicate anything meaningful? I doubt.



Lastly, here's a graph showing the daily change in confirmed cases and deaths in each country

Thank you for reading, stay safe!


Further reading:

My previous blog post: On covid-19 (17 Apr)

My previous blog post: On covid-19 (8 Apr)

My previous blog post: On covid-19 (31 Mar)


#R #DataScience #Society #Economy #coronavirus #covid-19

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