• Fish Wong

On Covid-19

9 March 2020 Update (Time Series Data):

Covid-19 mortality and recovery rate in different regions over time.

A handful of Asia countries follow a similar pattern of mortality and recovery rate for Covid-19, with a decreasing mortality rate and increasing recovery rate. For most of the analysed countries, the mortality rate peaked at a point after the outbreak in the country then began to decrease again. And the recovery rate shows a rising pattern over time.

Meanwhile, the Europe area shows the opposite, with a rising mortality rate and a plunging recovery rate. Before the covid-19 outbreak in the Europe area, countries like Spain, Germany and the UK have a pretty impressive recovery rate, but it is solely due to those countries only had less than 10 cases back in the late February.

The last graph shows the mortality and recovery rate in regions like the US, Canada and Australia. Iran, the current Covid-19 red zone country shows a similar pattern to some Asia countries for its mortality rate, while other analysed regions indicate a relatively low mortality rate.

Photo from the baselab

Nearly 3 months after the outbreak from China, covid-19 is now affecting 97 countries (and surged to 105 the next day). While some began to panic about the virus, some believed the panic is due to the media exaggeration about the virus' threats.

To begin with, an analysis of tweets related to coronavirus might also provide insights into people's opinion on covid-19.

The most used words in coronavirus-related (200,000 randomly scrapped) tweets are shown on the word cloud below. Apart from "spread", "outbreak", "health", we can also see, "panic", "Chinese", "quarantine", "hands". I find the word "cancelled" interesting since from what I know, several festivals and conferences are cancelled due to the covid-19 outbreak.

Unarguably, if we look at the number of infected patients in different countries, the growth is doubtlessly frightening, especially when it comes to countries like Iran, Italy and Korea.

Despite the extreme cases, we can look at the spreading rate in Asia, Europe and other parts of the world separately.

Among the countries that have relatively more cases in Asia, Japan (if not Korea) has the most confirmed cases, with an exponentially rising rate that is still growing. Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand's confirmed cases are climbing at a steady pace in comparison. While Hong Kong and Singapore have a similar spreading rate and the number of confirmed cases, Taiwan and Thailand have a similar spreading rate.

On the other hand, while the confirmed cases all around the world began to grow exponentially, the spread in China appeared to be slowing down since the end of February.

With a global fatality rate of 3.4% according to the NYTimes, doubtlessly the rate varies country by country. Taiwan, which has the highest death rate in Aisa of 2.2% has a recovery rate of 26.7%. China and Korea, the 2 countries that have the most confirmed cases in Asia have a similar death rate of 1.2% and 0.6% respectively but a huge difference in the recovery rate of 89.7% and 2% respectively.

Different from Asia, most of the European countries, including Italy, have a similar spreading pattern of the exponential growth of confirmed cases since the end of February. This might due to the sudden disastrous outbreak in Italy spread to its neighbour countries such as France, Germany and Spain.

And the confirmed cases in the UK reached 200 at the moment when I am writing this.

The recovery rate in Europe countries are relatively lower than Asia, this might due to the outbreak in Europe on began only around 2 weeks ago and patients would need more time to recover. And among all of the analysed countries, Spain is the only country that its death rate is higher than the recovery rate.

This graph shows the number of confirmed cases on Diamond Princess has a similar pattern as China. Also, the spreading rate in Australia and Canada is relatively less frightening compare to Europe and some of the Asia countries. However, the confirmed cases in the US began to surge since the beginning of this month as well.

However, the death rate in Australia is the highest among all of the analysed countries, even higher than Iran, the current red zone covid-19 country. But its recovery rate, on the other hand, is 10% higher than Iran.

And here is a gif showing the number of confirmed covid-19 cases every day in different regions.

Till today, the level of threats that covid-19 posted on human is still disputable. The facts are, covid-19's death rate and R0 are still higher than a lot of other conventional viruses. Furthermore, it is threatening enough to cause a few well-known music festivals (i.e. UMF, TML Winter, S2O) that are scheduled for later this month and April cancelled. So stay alert and stay healthy.

Further reading:

This article is an update of my previous blog post

#R #Python #DataScience #Society #coronavirus #covid-19